2024 Q1 | Edition 5 | Article 2
Avoiding mono-causal explanations
There is an old Korean story about a farmer and his son. They were not very wealthy, and the father was old and found it difficult to work the farm. They relied on their horse to support the boy in sowing the fields and maintaining the crops. One day, the horse ran away. ‘Curse that horse! She has ruined it for us!’ The young boy shouted as he looked at the impossibility of the workload ahead of. ‘We will never get the field sown without a horse.’ The father, who was weak but wise simply replied, ‘Good news or bad news. We shall see.’
The next day, the horse returned with three others and the family were able to keep the youngest and fittest horse and sell the others to their neighbours. ‘This is such incredible luck!’ The son reacted. ‘We shall see,’ his father replied.
The following week, the spirited horse threw the young man from the saddle, and he fell and broke his ankle. It meant that he couldn’t water and weed the crops. The younger man was devastated, but his father’s reaction was still the same. ‘We shall see.’
Two weeks later, armed soldiers came recruiting young men from the village for war. They left the boy who was lame, but took all the other young men. The battle was fierce, and none returned to the village alive. The old man hugged his son and said, ‘Good news or bad news, we shall see.’
The challenge of reacting to events around us
The way we respond to events around us rarely has anything to do with the event itself. It derives its meaning from our expectations. The wise old farmer had lived long enough to learn the calm that comes from controlling expectations and simple explanations of life.
Many events amass around our peripheral understanding. The person we are today is not usually the result of the decision we took 10 minutes ago, unless it was a particularly unusual and life-changing choice. Instead, it is the result of 10,000 small and inconsequential decisions that we took without consideration or intention. How then, do we model a better world around ourselves based on that kind of complexity?
-
What you know of a situation around you is simply the stance that you choose to take while you gather more evidence and better explanations. It will tide you over for a while, but it is probably not the final word on things. This is true whether you are facing a business challenge or a personal issues that you need to overcome. A sense of ‘truth’ is comforting. Living a life of radical truth, where you confront all your beliefs and take full responsibility is one of the best ways to move towards a happier, better life. But complete understanding is never an option. We will always have partial understanding and when we get close to the truth, situations change. If truth were out there beyond us, there would be no new science, no new technology. Accept that what you currently believe will tide you over for now.
-
This may seem obvious, but there will always be a tempting, simple explanation and one that leaves our ego in tact. You are smart enough to know that you are not perfect. You are smart enough to know that there are plenty of people with a sexy girlfriend or a top of the range car and who are completely miserable. Don’t accept the myth that you just haven’t found the right model, or colour or make of car yet. It’s not about the car. The worst stance that you can take in the face of evident failure is to assume that the blinder you are, the better. It will be unpleasant to confront reality. We are all a mix of disappointments to ourselves and to those around us in some way or other. Don’t wait for the truth to hit you in the head with a revelation that can no longer be ignored. Don’t wait to be made redundant, before you consider what makes you a valuable employee. Having trouble at work? In a lousy relationship? Confront the reasons head on. Maybe you’re the problem. If so, you can also be the solution.
-
The occurrence of an event usually tells us something about its cause. That redundancy notice that you just received will tell you two things: The company wasn’t doing as well as you assumed, or you weren’t doing as well as you assumed. Your girlfriend told you that she loves you but she’s just not ready for a relationship right now. It’s easy to jump to the obvious conclusion. Your girlfriend will see sense and come round to realising your value soon enough. Perhaps you just need to wait. But what if that is only part of the picture? She probably told you those words because although she’s dumping you, she still has enough ego not to want to be looked at as a monster. Admitting the truth, she liked the flattery of dating you at the beginning but she’s shallow and it wore off, would be a step too far for her to admit out loud. She’s probably lying to herself, as well as you. For most people, the search for an explanation typically stops when one plausible narrative can be found. It is always worth digging a bit deeper.
There are three steps to becoming more like the wise old farmer and less reactive to the events around you.
The nature of the world around us is that we live in a state of chaos. There is rarely a simple mono-causal explanation to events that are worth investing time in understanding. Your goal is not to make perfect sense of the world around you but to find order.
Our next article
Regression
One of the first algorithms that students of data analytics will learn is a regression algorithm. It presents a tempting prediction of how things as yet unknown may behave or evolve. But understanding why something happened is not the same as predictive ability.